Burin Adulwattana stands out in talks. He leads at Kasikorn Research Center. His voice carries weight when forecasts turn grim. GDP grows at a slow 2.4%. Dark clouds form as a trade war looms.
Thailand bears the label “Sick Man of Asia.” Local buyers stay weak. This is no small chill but a full economic cold. Burin warns that fixing debt and jobs is needed now. Without fast fixes, things fall short.
Low-income groups feel the hit. They work hard to meet daily bills. Their cash flow and debt strain feel heavy. The plan calls for spurring spending by strong buyers and inviting fresh foreign cash. This should give the GDP a needed jump.
A small, hidden trade blooms in the back. This side holds much cash. The hard task is to pull that cash into official use. It is like pulling a pet from its safe spot.
Tariff talk cuts deep. Trump’s tariff rule hits hard. The forecast sees a 0.3% cost on GDP. Should tariffs steepen to 10% or more, the fall may deepen. The risk stays real, and all eyes watch closely after April 2. In a wider view, the US faces trade cuts and debt strain. A plan called the Mar-a-Lago Accord takes shape. It hints at a move like the 1985 Plaza plan. The goal is to ease the US dollar. Yet, this plan may force friends to buy long-term bonds.
Rujipan Assarut of KResearch points to car work. His report shows tough times. Extra trade strain adds more cars than buyers want. Production leads sales by 16%, pushing prices down. In the US, Chinese makers hold the line. For Thailand, car exports and making work may drop hard.
Kevalin Wangpichayasuk says tariff threats cut industry work. By 2025, the hit may near 1.0%. The tourism side stumbles too. Guests from China and Malaysia shrink in number. The fight for visitor cash grows fierce.
Nattaporn Treratsirikul hears more warnings on tariffs. A 10% rise may drop GDP by 0.3%. A 25% jump risks a 0.6% cut. With GDP growth now set at 2.4%, the chance of a drop stays near.
As the end of 2025 nears, the trade war may weigh heavier. The long shadow of last year still lingers. The scene today feels like a worn film with too many repeats. We hope for a twist that adds more light than dark.
